Election horse trading could hurt NZ

30-08-2010 | Alan Emerson

I've been on holiday in Australia for a couple of weeks, observed the election and the last 10 days of the campaign. I've seen a positive plethora of politicians doing what they do best, polarising the peasants. A bit like New Zealand really.

At the time of writing the election was some days past and there was no winner. Australia hasn't had a hung parliament for 70 years so the next few weeks and months will be interesting, particularly so for our agriculture sector. The majority of the independents, whose backing will form the next government be it Coalition or Labour, are from rural electorates. A plank of one of their number, Bob Katter, a former Queensland state minister under then premier Joh Bjelke- Petersen in the 1980s, is to ban food imports. A requirement of most independents is, predictably, better services for rural areas and protection for rural industries.

The independents do, in my opinion, constitute a threat to NZ food exports.

The fact that they are an insignificant minority is irrelevant. If Kiwis had been told before our last election that the Maori Party would have been successful convincing t

I found a major difference in the Australian election campaign from ours was that they actually discussed the agricultural sector and even had well defined policies. I found that quite enlightening.

Even more enlightening was the pledge, effectively by both Labour and the Coalition, to have a national food plan. The aim is to examine affordability, global competitiveness and sustainability. They also want imported food off the shelves to be replaced by the local variety. Agriculture Minister Tony Burke added that while "supermarket shelves were filling with imported products, regional Australia was emptying of jobs".

They also promised water reform, tougher biosecurity and efficient road, rail and ports structures. The National Farmers Federation was going to be consulted on rural issues.

Following the election, the independent MPs, who are largely unknown to us, had, to my knowledge, no detailed analysis of their policies in the news media.

Also, what appears to have fallen beneath the Australian media radar is that there are, in effect, two hung parliaments when you include the Senate, albeit they don't assume their seats until next July. If you take the logical step of believing the Greens will go with Labour, as they've promised, then you have a Labour Greens run Senate. In the interim the Senate is Labour. That says to me that if the Coalition does form a government in the lower house then any legislation they put forward can be blocked by the Greens and Labour in the Senate.

New Zealand is used to hung parliaments and knife-edge majorities. Remember Jenny Shipley and Alamein Kopu? Australia isn't and, with the issue of lower and upper houses, I can see another election in the near future. In the short term I'd put money that Julia Gillard will continue as Prime Minister but for how long is anyone's guess. In NZ we should be prepared for a change in our relationship with Australia with intervention rearing its head.

If there are any lessons for NZ from the Australian elections it is that there is massive disillusionment with the two main parties, in fact with politicians in general. In Australia you are required by law to vote. Of those who did, 6% registered an informal or negative vote. They had the power to put whoever they wanted in parliament but chose to protest instead. A second lesson is that a party with over 50% support in the polls can lose that advantage almost overnight.

I enjoyed the trip to Australia as I inevitably do and I believe there are lessons to be learned. Yes it is rich in minerals and they mine them. As I've said on previous occasions we're rich in water and we let 96% of it run out to sea.

The difference is their politicians acknowledge agriculture and its role in the Australian economy and they are actually developing a plan and strategy for it.

Maybe those two reasons are contributing to Kiwis crossing the Tasman in droves. Maybe those two factors contribute to their earning an advantage over NZ. If we're serious about catching up maybe they're worth considering.

It was actually all such an enlightening experience I thought it was time to come home and be depressed.

* Alan Emerson is a semi-retired Wairarapa farmer and businessman; dath-emerson@wizbiz.co.net.nz

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